The evolution of SARS-CoV-2.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused millions of deaths and substantial morbidity worldwide. Intense scientific effort to understand the biology of SARS-CoV-2 has resulted in daunting numbers of genomic sequences. We witnessed evolutionary events that could mostly be inferred indirectly before, such as the emergence of variants with distinct phenotypes, for example transmissibility, severity and immune evasion. This Review explores the mechanisms that generate genetic variation in SARS-CoV-2, underlying the within-host and population-level processes that underpin these events. We examine the selective forces that likely drove the evolution of higher transmissibility and, in some cases, higher severity during the first year of the pandemic and the role of antigenic evolution during the second and third years, together with the implications of immune escape and reinfections, and the increasing evidence for and potential relevance of recombination. In order to understand how major lineages, such as variants of concern (VOCs), are generated, we contrast the evidence for the chronic infection model underlying the emergence of VOCs with the possibility of an animal reservoir playing a role in SARS-CoV-2 evolution, and conclude that the former is more likely. We evaluate uncertainties and outline scenarios for the possible future evolutionary trajectories of SARS-CoV-2.

The relationship between SARS-CoV-2 neutralising antibody titres and avidity in plasma collected from convalescent non-vaccinated and vaccinated blood donors.

Convalescent plasma (CP) treatment of COVID-19 has shown significant therapeutic effect when administered early (e.g. Argentinian trial showing reduced hospitalisation) but has in general been ineffective (e.g. REMAP-CAP trial without improvement during hospitalisation). To investigate whether the differences in CP used could explain the different outcomes, we compared neutralising antibodies, anti-spike IgG and avidity of CP used in the REMAP-CAP and Argentinian trials and in convalescent vaccinees. We found no difference between the trial plasmas emphasising initial patient serostatus as treatment efficacy predictor. By contrast, vaccinee convalescent plasma showed significantly higher titres and avidity, being preferable for future CP-treatment.

Convalescent plasma donors show enhanced cross-reactive neutralizing antibody response to antigenic variants of SARS-CoV-2 following immunization.

BACKGROUND: The therapeutic benefit of convalescent plasma (CP) therapy to treat COVID-19 may derive from neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) to SARS-CoV-2. To investigate the effects of antigenic variation on neutralization potency of CP, we compared nAb titers against prototype and recently emerging strains of SARS-CoV-2, including Delta and Omicron, in CP donors previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 before and after immunization. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Samples were assayed from previously SARS-CoV-2 infected donors before (n = 17) and after one (n = 43) or two (n = 71) doses of Astra-Zeneca or Pfizer vaccinations. Ab titers against Wuhan/wild type (WT), Alpha, Beta, and Delta SARS-CoV-2 strains were determined by live virus microneutralization assay while titers to Omicron used a focus reduction neutralization test. Anti-spike antibody was assayed by Elecsys anti-SARS-CoV-2 quantitative spike assay (Roche). RESULTS: Unvaccinated donors showed a geometric mean titer (GMT) of 148 against WT, 80 against Alpha but mostly failed to neutralize Beta, Delta, and Omicron strains. Contrastingly, high GMTs were observed in vaccinated donors against all SARS-CoV-2 strains after one vaccine dose (WT:703; Alpha:692; Beta:187; Delta:215; Omicron:434). By ROC analysis, reactivity in the Roche quantitative Elecsys spike assay of 20,000 U/mL was highly predictive of donations with nAb titers of ≥1:640 against Delta (90% sensitivity; 97% specificity) and ≥1:320 against Omicron (89% sensitivity; 81% specificity). DISCUSSION: Vaccination of previously infected CP donors induced high levels of broadly neutralizing antibodies against circulating antigenic variants of SARS-CoV-2. High titer donations could be reliably identified by automated quantitative anti-spike antibody assay, enabling large-scale preselection of high-titer convalescent plasma.

Detection frequencies and viral load distribution of parvovirus B19 DNA in blood and plasma donations in England.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Infections with human parvovirus B19 (B19V) are transmissible by blood components and plasma-derived medicines. The European Pharmacopoeia regulates maximum levels of virus allowed in manufacturers' plasma pools. To evaluate contamination risk prior to re-introduction of UK-sourced plasma for manufacturing, we investigated viraemia frequencies of B19V in plasma samples collected from blood donors before and during COVID-enforced lockdown. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Quantitative PCR for B19V DNA was used to screen pools of 96 anonymised plasma samples collected in England from 2017 (n = 29 505), 2020 (n = 3360) and 2021 (n = 43 200). Selected positive pools were resolved into individual samples. Data on donor notifications and related lookback investigations were collected from European countries by on-line survey in 2020. RESULTS: Screening of 76 065 donations identified 80 B19V-positive pools. While most positive samples had low viral loads (<105  IU ml-1 ), primarily from 2017 (77/29 505; 0.3%), two contained high levels of B19V DNA (1.3 × 108 and 6.3 × 106 IU ml-1 ), both likely to contaminate a final manufacturer's pool and lead to discard. The incidence of B19V infection during lockdown was reduced (1/3360 in 2020; 0/43 200 in 2021). Genomic analysis of positive pools resolved to single samples identified B19V genotype 1 in all nine samples. Seroprevalence of anti-B19V IgG antibodies was 75% (143/192). A survey of B19V screening practices in Europe demonstrated considerable variability. Two blood establishments informed infected blood donors of positive B19V results. CONCLUSION: Information on seroprevalence, incidence and viral loads of B19V viraemia is contributory the evaluation of alternative operational screening strategies for plasma testing.

Fatal COVID-19 outcomes are associated with an antibody response targeting epitopes shared with endemic coronaviruses.

The role of immune responses to previously seen endemic coronavirus epitopes in severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and disease progression has not yet been determined. Here, we show that a key characteristic of fatal outcomes with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is that the immune response to the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein is enriched for antibodies directed against epitopes shared with endemic beta-coronaviruses and has a lower proportion of antibodies targeting the more protective variable regions of the spike. The magnitude of antibody responses to the SARS-CoV-2 full-length spike protein, its domains and subunits, and the SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid also correlated strongly with responses to the endemic beta-coronavirus spike proteins in individuals admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) with fatal COVID-19 outcomes, but not in individuals with nonfatal outcomes. This correlation was found to be due to the antibody response directed at the S2 subunit of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, which has the highest degree of conservation between the beta-coronavirus spike proteins. Intriguingly, antibody responses to the less cross-reactive SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid were not significantly different in individuals who were admitted to an ICU with fatal and nonfatal outcomes, suggesting an antibody profile in individuals with fatal outcomes consistent with an "original antigenic sin" type response.

Highly Sensitive Lineage Discrimination of SARS-CoV-2 Variants through Allele-Specific Probe PCR.

Tools to detect SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and track the ongoing evolution of the virus are necessary to support public health efforts and the design and evaluation of novel COVID-19 therapeutics and vaccines. Although next-generation sequencing (NGS) has been adopted as the gold standard method for discriminating SARS-CoV-2 lineages, alternative methods may be required when processing samples with low viral loads or low RNA quality. To this aim, an allele-specific probe PCR (ASP-PCR) targeting lineage-specific single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) was developed and used to screen 1,082 samples from two clinical trials in the United Kingdom and Brazil. Probit regression models were developed to compare ASP-PCR performance against 1,771 NGS results for the same cohorts. Individual SNPs were shown to readily identify specific variants of concern. ASP-PCR was shown to discriminate SARS-CoV-2 lineages with a higher likelihood than NGS over a wide range of viral loads. The comparative advantage for ASP-PCR over NGS was most pronounced in samples with cycle threshold (CT) values between 26 and 30 and in samples that showed evidence of degradation. Results for samples screened by ASP-PCR and NGS showed 99% concordant results. ASP-PCR is well suited to augment but not replace NGS. The method can differentiate SARS-CoV-2 lineages with high accuracy and would be best deployed to screen samples with lower viral loads or that may suffer from degradation. Future work should investigate further destabilization from primer-target base mismatch through altered oligonucleotide chemistry or chemical additives.

Effects of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Strain Variation on Virus Neutralization Titers: Therapeutic Use of Convalescent Plasma.

We compared neutralizing antibody titers of convalescent samples collected before and after the emergence of novel strains of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), against the wild-type virus and Alpha (B.1.1.7) and Beta (B.1.351) variants. Plasma samples collected in 2020 before emergence of variants showed reduced titers against the Alpha variants, and both sets of samples demonstrated significantly reduced titers against Beta. Comparison of microneutralization titers with those obtained with pseudotype and hemagglutination tests showed a good correlation between their titers and effects of strain variation, supporting the use of these simpler assays for assessing the potency of convalescent plasma against currently circulating and emerging strains of SARS-CoV-2.

Efficacy of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222) vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating in Brazil.

Several COVID-19 vaccines have shown good efficacy in clinical trials, but there remains uncertainty about the efficacy of vaccines against different variants. Here, we investigate the efficacy of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222) against symptomatic COVID-19 in a post-hoc exploratory analysis of a Phase 3 randomised trial in Brazil (trial registration ISRCTN89951424). Nose and throat swabs were tested by PCR in symptomatic participants. Sequencing and genotyping of swabs were performed to determine the lineages of SARS-CoV-2 circulating during the study. Protection against any symptomatic COVID-19 caused by the Zeta (P.2) variant was assessed in 153 cases with vaccine efficacy (VE) of 69% (95% CI 55, 78). 49 cases of B.1.1.28 occurred and VE was 73% (46, 86). The Gamma (P.1) variant arose later in the trial and fewer cases (N = 18) were available for analysis. VE was 64% (-2, 87). ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 provided 95% protection (95% CI 61%, 99%) against hospitalisation due to COVID-19. In summary, we report that ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 protects against emerging variants in Brazil despite the presence of the spike protein mutation E484K.

Perforin, COVID-19 and a possible pathogenic auto-inflammatory feedback loop.

During COVID-19 infection, reduced function of natural killer (NK) cells can lead to both compromised viral clearance and dysregulation of the immune response. Such dysregulation leads to overproduction of cytokines, a raised neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio and monocytosis. This in turn increases IL-6 expression, which promotes scar and thrombus formation. Excess IL-6 also leads to a further reduction in NK function through downregulation of perforin expression, therefore forming a pathogenic auto-inflammatory feedback loop. The perforin/granzyme system of cytotoxicity is the main mechanism through which NK cells and cytotoxic T lymphocytes eliminate virally infected host cells, as well as being central to their role in regulating immune responses to microbial infection. Here, we present epidemiological evidence suggesting an association between perforin expression and resistance to COVID-19. In addition, we outline the manner in which a pathogenic auto-inflammatory feedback loop could operate and the relationship of this loop to genes associated with severe COVID-19. Such an auto-inflammatory loop may be amenable to synergistic multimodal therapy.

Uncovering viral RNA-host cell interactions on a proteome-wide scale.

RNA viruses interact with a wide range of cellular RNA-binding proteins (RBPs) during their life cycle. The prevalence of these host-virus interactions has been highlighted by new methods that elucidate the composition of viral ribonucleoproteins (vRNPs). Applied to 11 viruses so far, these approaches have revealed hundreds of cellular RBPs that interact with viral (v)RNA in infected cells. However, consistency across methods is limited, raising questions about methodological considerations when designing and interpreting these studies. Here, we discuss these caveats and, through comparing available vRNA interactomes, describe RBPs that are consistently identified as vRNP components and outline their potential roles in infection. In summary, these novel approaches have uncovered a new universe of host-virus interactions holding great therapeutic potential.

Virological Characterization of Critically Ill Patients With COVID-19 in the United Kingdom: Interactions of Viral Load, Antibody Status, and B.1.1.7 Infection.

BACKGROUND: Convalescent plasma containing neutralizing antibody to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is under investigation for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) treatment. We report diverse virological characteristics of UK intensive care patients enrolled in the Immunoglobulin Domain of the REMAP-CAP randomized controlled trial that potentially influence treatment outcomes. METHODS: SARS-CoV-2 RNA in nasopharyngeal swabs collected pretreatment was quantified by PCR. Antibody status was determined by spike-protein ELISA. B.1.1.7 was differentiated from other SARS-CoV-2 strains using allele-specific probes or restriction site polymorphism (SfcI) targeting D1118H. RESULTS: Of 1274 subjects, 90% were PCR positive with viral loads 118-1.7 × 1011IU/mL. Median viral loads were 40-fold higher in those IgG seronegative (n = 354; 28%) compared to seropositives (n = 939; 72%). Frequencies of B.1.1.7 increased from <1% in November 2020 to 82% of subjects in January 2021. Seronegative individuals with wild-type SARS-CoV-2 had significantly higher viral loads than seropositives (medians 5.8 × 106 and 2.0 × 105 IU/mL, respectively; P = 2 × 10-15). CONCLUSIONS: High viral loads in seropositive B.1.1.7-infected subjects and resistance to seroconversion indicate less effective clearance by innate and adaptive immune responses. SARS-CoV-2 strain, viral loads, and antibody status define subgroups for analysis of treatment efficacy.

Mapping of serological testing and SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence studies performed in 20 European countries, March-June 2020.

BACKGROUND: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic spread across Europe from February 2020. While robust SARS-CoV-2 serological assays were quickly developed, only limited information on applied serological testing is available. We describe the extent and nature of SARS-CoV-2 serological testing used in Europe and assess the links between epidemiology, mitigation strategies applied and seroprevalence. METHODS: An online questionnaire on SARS-CoV-2 serology was sent to the European Society of Clinical Virology and European Non-Polio Enterovirus Network members in September 2020. Data were analysed by comparing mitigation approaches, serological methods and seroprevalance studies performed. RESULTS: About 100 000 laboratory confirmed cases identified between March and June 2020 were reported by 36 participating laboratories from 20 countries. All responders experienced mitigation strategies including lockdowns and other closures. All except one participant had introduced serological testing; most had validated their assays (n = 29), but some had had difficulties in obtaining reference material. Most used commercial assays (n = 35), measuring IgG response against the spike antigen. Serology was used primarily for diagnostic purposes (n = 22) but also for convalescent plasma (n = 13) and research studies (n = 30). Seroprevalence studies targeted mainly health care workers (n = 20; seroprevalance 5% to 22%) and general population (n = 16; seroprevalance 0.88% to 5.6%). Basic demographic and clinical information were collected by most laboratories (n = 28), whereas data on long-term outcomes were rarely collected. CONCLUSIONS: This is first study gathering systematic information on serological testing approaches implemented during the first pandemic wave in Europe.

Comparability of six different immunoassays measuring SARS-CoV-2 antibodies with neutralizing antibody levels in convalescent plasma: From utility to prediction.

BACKGROUND: Convalescent plasma (CP) therapy for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) provides virus-neutralizing antibodies that may ameliorate the outcome of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections. The effectiveness of CP likely depends on its antiviral neutralizing potency and is determined using in vitro neutralizing antibody assays. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: We evaluated abilities of three immunoassays for anti-spike antibodies (EUROimmun, Ortho, Roche), a pseudotype-based neutralization assay, and two assays that quantify ACE2 binding of spike protein (GenScript and hemagglutination test [HAT]-based assay) to predict neutralizing antibody titers in 113 CP donations. Assay outputs were analyzed through linear regression and calculation of sensitivities and specificities by receiver operator characteristic (ROC) analysis. RESULTS: Median values of plasma samples containing neutralizing antibodies produced conversion factors for assay unitage of ×6.5 (pseudotype), ×19 (GenScript), ×3.4 (HAT assay), ×0.08 (EUROimmun), ×1.64 (Roche), and ×0.10 (Ortho). All selected assays were sufficient in identifying the high titer donations based on ROC analysis; area over curve ranged from 91.7% for HAT and GenScript assay to 95.6% for pseudotype assay. However, their ability to predict the actual neutralizing antibody levels varied substantially as shown by linear regression correlation values (from 0.27 for Ortho to 0.61 for pseudotype assay). DISCUSSION: Overall, the study data demonstrate that all selected assays were effective in identifying donations with high neutralizing antibody levels and are potentially suitable as surrogate assays for donation selection for CP therapy.

Clinical validation of optimised RT-LAMP for the diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

We have optimised a reverse transcription-loop-mediated isothermal amplification (RT-LAMP) assay for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 from extracted RNA for clinical application. We improved the stability and reliability of the RT-LAMP assay by the addition of a temperature-dependent switch oligonucleotide to reduce self- or off-target amplification. We then developed freeze-dried master mix for single step RT-LAMP reaction, simplifying the operation for end users and improving long-term storage and transportation. The assay can detect as low as 13 copies of SARS-CoV2 RNA per reaction (25-µL). Cross reactivity with other human coronaviruses was not observed. We have applied the new RT-LAMP assay for testing clinical extracted RNA samples extracted from swabs of 72 patients in the UK and 126 samples from Greece and demonstrated the overall sensitivity of 90.2% (95% CI 83.8-94.7%) and specificity of 92.4% (95% CI 83.2-97.5%). Among 115 positive samples which Ct values were less than 34, the RT-LAMP assay was able to detect 110 of them with 95.6% sensitivity. The specificity was 100% when RNA elution used RNase-free water. The outcome of RT-LAMP can be reported by both colorimetric detection and quantifiable fluorescent reading. Objective measures with a digitized reading data flow would allow for the sharing of results for local or national surveillance.

SARS-CoV-2 neutralising antibody testing in Europe: towards harmonisation of neutralising antibody titres for better use of convalescent plasma and comparability of trial data.

We compared the performance of SARS-CoV-2 neutralising antibody testing between 12 European laboratories involved in convalescent plasma trials. Raw titres differed almost 100-fold differences between laboratories when blind-testing 15 plasma samples. Calibration of titres in relation to the reference reagent and standard curve obtained by testing a dilution series reduced the inter-laboratory variability ca 10-fold. The harmonisation of neutralising antibody quantification is a vital step towards determining the protective and therapeutic levels of neutralising antibodies.

Extensive C->U transition biases in the genomes of a wide range of mammalian RNA viruses; potential associations with transcriptional mutations, damage- or host-mediated editing of viral RNA.

The rapid evolution of RNA viruses has been long considered to result from a combination of high copying error frequencies during RNA replication, short generation times and the consequent extensive fixation of neutral or adaptive changes over short periods. While both the identities and sites of mutations are typically modelled as being random, recent investigations of sequence diversity of SARS coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have identified a preponderance of C->U transitions, proposed to be driven by an APOBEC-like RNA editing process. The current study investigated whether this phenomenon could be observed in datasets of other RNA viruses. Using a 5% divergence filter to infer directionality, 18 from 36 datasets of aligned coding region sequences from a diverse range of mammalian RNA viruses (including Picornaviridae, Flaviviridae, Matonaviridae, Caliciviridae and Coronaviridae) showed a >2-fold base composition normalised excess of C->U transitions compared to U->C (range 2.1x-7.5x), with a consistently observed favoured 5' U upstream context. The presence of genome scale RNA secondary structure (GORS) was the only other genomic or structural parameter significantly associated with C->U/U->C transition asymmetries by multivariable analysis (ANOVA), potentially reflecting RNA structure dependence of sites targeted for C->U mutations. Using the association index metric, C->U changes were specifically over-represented at phylogenetically uninformative sites, potentially paralleling extensive homoplasy of this transition reported in SARS-CoV-2. Although mechanisms remain to be functionally characterised, excess C->U substitutions accounted for 11-14% of standing sequence variability of structured viruses and may therefore represent a potent driver of their sequence diversification and longer-term evolution.

SARS-CoV-2 within-host diversity and transmission.

Extensive global sampling and sequencing of the pandemic virus severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have enabled researchers to monitor its spread and to identify concerning new variants. Two important determinants of variant spread are how frequently they arise within individuals and how likely they are to be transmitted. To characterize within-host diversity and transmission, we deep-sequenced 1313 clinical samples from the United Kingdom. SARS-CoV-2 infections are characterized by low levels of within-host diversity when viral loads are high and by a narrow bottleneck at transmission. Most variants are either lost or occasionally fixed at the point of transmission, with minimal persistence of shared diversity, patterns that are readily observable on the phylogenetic tree. Our results suggest that transmission-enhancing and/or immune-escape SARS-CoV-2 variants are likely to arise infrequently but could spread rapidly if successfully transmitted.

Potential APOBEC-mediated RNA editing of the genomes of SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses and its impact on their longer term evolution.

Members of the APOBEC family of cytidine deaminases show antiviral activities in mammalian cells through lethal editing in the genomes of small DNA viruses, herpesviruses and retroviruses, and potentially those of RNA viruses such as coronaviruses. Consistent with the latter, APOBEC-like directional C→U transitions of genomic plus-strand RNA are greatly overrepresented in SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences of variants emerging during the COVID-19 pandemic. A C→U mutational process may leave evolutionary imprints on coronavirus genomes, including extensive homoplasy from editing and reversion at targeted sites and the occurrence of driven amino acid sequence changes in viral proteins. If sustained over longer periods, this process may account for the previously reported marked global depletion of C and excess of U bases in human seasonal coronavirus genomes. This review synthesizes the current knowledge on APOBEC evolution and function and the evidence of their role in APOBEC-mediated genome editing of SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses.

SARS-CoV-2 RNA detected in blood products from patients with COVID-19 is not associated with infectious virus.

Background: Laboratory diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection (the cause of COVID-19) uses PCR to detect viral RNA (vRNA) in respiratory samples. SARS-CoV-2 RNA has also been detected in other sample types, but there is limited understanding of the clinical or laboratory significance of its detection in blood. Methods: We undertook a systematic literature review to assimilate the evidence for the frequency of vRNA in blood, and to identify associated clinical characteristics. We performed RT-PCR in serum samples from a UK clinical cohort of acute and convalescent COVID-19 cases (n=212), together with convalescent plasma samples collected by NHS Blood and Transplant (NHSBT) (n=462 additional samples). To determine whether PCR-positive blood samples could pose an infection risk, we attempted virus isolation from a subset of RNA-positive samples. Results: We identified 28 relevant studies, reporting SARS-CoV-2 RNA in 0-76% of blood samples; pooled estimate 10% (95%CI 5-18%). Among serum samples from our clinical cohort, 27/212 (12.7%) had SARS-CoV-2 RNA detected by RT-PCR. RNA detection occurred in samples up to day 20 post symptom onset, and was associated with more severe disease (multivariable odds ratio 7.5). Across all samples collected ≥28 days post symptom onset, 0/494 (0%, 95%CI 0-0.7%) had vRNA detected. Among our PCR-positive samples, cycle threshold (ct) values were high (range 33.5-44.8), suggesting low vRNA copy numbers. PCR-positive sera inoculated into cell culture did not produce any cytopathic effect or yield an increase in detectable SARS-CoV-2 RNA. Conclusions: vRNA was detectable at low viral loads in a minority of serum samples collected in acute infection, but was not associated with infectious SARS-CoV-2 (within the limitations of the assays used). This work helps to inform biosafety precautions for handling blood products from patients with current or previous COVID-19.